Everybody seems to have an opinion. I am of those who thing China will find its own path, as it has done until now, rather than following a specific model. Japan’s example is interesting, but the comparison has its limits.

Last week I read Toyota Production System by Taiichi Ohno, who literally gave birth to what we call lean manufacturing. In this book he tries to put his work into perspective, and it gives us some interesting insights:

Starting from low quality

First, everybody knows that “Made in Japan” meant low quality in the 1950s.

Just like China nowadays. No surprise here.

A mass production system as long as growth remains rapid

Second, Chinese factories like to process large batches and pay relatively little attention to quality, while the Japanese have long recognized the value of JIT and kanban systems, right? Wrong! Here is what Ohno writes (P1):

Prior to the oil crisis, when I talked to people about Toyota’s manufacturing technology and production system, I found little interest. When rapid growth stopped, however, it became very obvious that a business could not be profitable using the conventional American mass production system that had worked so well for so long.

Does it suggest that it would take a real, prolonged crisis for Chinese producers to look for models and adapt their operations?

Start from copying what exists, and then innovate

Third, the Chinese are generally seen as copiers rather than inventors, right? What about Japan? Here is what Toyota’s founder wrote around 1923 (P79):

Presently, white people question what contributions Japanese people have made to modern civilization. The Chinese invented the magnetic compass. But what invention did the Japanese make? Japanese people are merely imitators. This is what they say.

All of the above suggests that China’s manufacturing is not much different from that of Japan 40 years ago. I think what has allowed Japan to reach its current leading status in the manufacturing world was its willingness to go against common sense, and to adopt best practices from companies like Toyota. What about China? To be honest, I am not very optimistic.

PS: Toyota is currently having quite a hard time, with massive recalls. Guess where the defective accelerator parts were made? Probably in China.