Over the weekend, I read a book called Risk: a User's Guide. The authors, which include former general McChrystal, make an interesting point about the use of probability. First, let's look at the traditional approach to quantifying risk The general approach to assessing risk in quality circles is based on this equation: Risk = likelihood of an occurrence x severity of that occurence And practitioners often add a third factor: the ability to detect the risk. Most process FMEA forms … [Read more...]
Supply Chain Risk Management: No, Toyota Doesn’t Always Do Just-In-Time
I ran into a very interesting article from Bloomberg entitled How Toyota Steered Clear of the Chip Shortage Mess. Nearly all automakers announced that they would have to cut their production numbers due to a serious shortage of semiconductors. This was made even worse by a recent fire in a Japanese manufacturing plant. One might think Toyota would be seriously impacted by the general market situation and by one of their suppliers being temporarily unable to produce. Apparently, Toyota … [Read more...]
Supply Chain Risk Management, Part 4: How Much Inventory Do You Need?
If you make sure to sit on 6 months of inventory for every one of your major products, you will run much lower risks of being unable to supply your customers with what they need. You might even be able to cut a current manufacturer off and ramp up a new one, without any impact on your customers. There will be downsides, though. Working capital is expensive. Warehousing and transporting all these goods are not cheap. You may have to write off damaged, lost, of rapidly obsolete materials. (It … [Read more...]
The Biggest Manufacturing Risk These Days: Short Term Focus
Back in February (which seems to be a long time ago), I wrote that that number 1 manufacturing risk for importers was quality issues and the number 2 was delivery delays. (I also mentioned "lower demand on your market" because we were "getting to the end of a long cycle of economic expansion". That proved to be number 1 risk, actually!) But, let's get back to the suppliers' quality & delivery performance and why short term focus has continued to impact them and their reliability... … [Read more...]
Supply Chain Risk Management, Part 2: The Business Continuity Plan
In this post, let's focus on disaster prevention, and more specifically on the business continuity plan, with a simple example. We will also provide you with a free template. This is the second post in our series of Supply Chain Risk Management, which will come out gradually over the next few months. … [Read more...]
Supply Chain Risk Management, Part 1: What are VUCA and Black Swans?
We seem to be at a pretty low point right now: Billions of people are confined at home. Economists are predicting a disaster and seem to think 2020 will probably be worse than what most of us can remember. The behavior and effects of this novel coronavirus are still partly unknown. It could still mutate and become more dangerous, for example. And, most amazing of all: the situation has been changing dramatically every 1 or 2 weeks. I am starting this new series on supply chain … [Read more...]